Prediction of required specification for the development of future gasoline turbo engine standards through time series analysis
AUTHORS
SeungHyun Chung,Student, 04620 Dept. Industrial Engineering, Dongguk Univ., 30, Pildong-ro 1-gil, Jung-gu, Seoul, Korea
JoonYoung Park*,Professor, 04620 Dept. Industrial Engineering, Dongguk Univ., 30, Pildong-ro 1-gil, Jung-gu, Seoul, Korea
JinYeong Um*,Professor, 04620 Dept. of Computer Science & Engineering, Dongguk Univ. 30, Pildong-ro 1-gil, Jung-gu, Seoul, Korea
ABSTRACT
Environmental regulations have been tightened since Volkswagen’s diesel gates. In order to cope with environmental regulations, eco-friendly cars should be developed, but due to the high price, it is difficult to be accepted by all consumers. In addition, as customer needs diversify, the product life cycle is shortening. Manufacturers need to innovate their processes to diversify their products and reduce lead times. This paper aims to predict long-term future engine torque in order to secure development efficiency and competitiveness of internal combustion engines, which are the major components of automobiles. Sales data for 20 years from 1998 to 2017 were used, with weights based on sales volume. Based on the above data, time series analysis was conducted using three methods, MA, ARIMA, and Fitted Regression. The results of the prediction for each segment were derived, and the engine can be used to plan the engine with appropriate torque.
KEYWORDS
Data mining, Time series analysis, Integrated product planning, Market needs forecasting
REFERENCES
[1] Boretti A., The Future of the Internal Combustion Engine after “Diesel-Gate”, SAE Technical Paper 2017-28, pp.1933, (2017) DOI:10.4271/2017-28-1933(CrossRef)(Google Scholar)
[2] Möhner M., “Driving ban for diesel-powered vehicles in major cities: an appropriate penalty for exceeding the limit value for nitrogen dioxide?” Int Arch Occup Environ Health, vol.91, pp.373-376 (2018) DOI:10.1007/s00420-018-1297-4(CrossRef)(Google Scholar)
[3] Z. Yang and A. Bandivadekar, “2017 global update light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas and fuel economy standards,” ICCT, (2017)
[4] M. Hakariya, T. Toda, M. Sakai, “The new Toyota Inline 4-Cylinder 2.5L gasoline engine,” SAE Technical Paper, (2017) DOI:10.4271/2017-01-1021(CrossRef)(Google Scholar)
[5] E. Nakai, T. Goto, K. Ezumi, Y. Tsumura, K, Endou, Y. Kanda, T. Urushihara, M. Sueoka, and M. Hitomi, “Mazda motor corporation, mazda SKYACTIV-X 2.0L gasoline engine,” 28 Aachener Kolloquium, October 7-9; Eurogress Aachen, Germany, (2019)
[6] https://s3.amazonaws.com/automotiveworld/webinars/18-11-07-Ricardo-Optimising-hybrid-vehicles-in-a-world-of-increasing-powertrain-complexity.pdf, (2018)
[7] IHS: IHS global production forecast, (2017)
[8] JATO Dynamics: JATO global car sales data, (2017)
[9] Berry and Michael J. A, “Data mining techniques: for marketing, sales, and customer relationship management 2nd ed.,” WILEY, pp.72-75. ISBN:0-471-47064-3, (2004)